Nfl Fantasy Sleeper Picks
2021年4月13日Register here: http://gg.gg/p0qmy
Everyone has optimism in the preseason, and with that in mind, we choose one fantasy football sleeper from all 32 NFL teams. See which potential breakout from your favorite team is worth bumping. Host Anthony Aniano of RotoBaller discusses 2021 fantasy baseball third base rankings and 3B draft sleepers who can be sneaky later-round picks. He breaks down and compares the ADPs of five.
As we enter into the heart of fantasy football draft season, we circled back with our ESPN Fantasy Football experts to bring you their latest sleepers, busts and breakout players for the 2020 campaign, as defined here:
*
Sleeper: A player who will far surpass his average draft position (ADP) in standard ESPN leagues for the 2020 season.
*
Bust: A player who is expected to be a solid starter in standard ESPN leagues but will fail to live up to those expectations this season.
*
Breakout: A player who will leap into or close to the upper echelon of players at his position for the first time because of a dramatic increase in production compared with his previous seasons (or a rookie who will burst onto the scene).
Our panel is composed of the following ESPN Fantasy writers and editors: Stephania Bell, Matthew Berry, Matt Bowen, Tom Carpenter, Mike Clay, Tristan H. Cockcroft, Daniel Dopp, Eric Karabell, Keith Lipscomb, Jim McCormick and Field Yates.
Each analyst named a sleeper and a bust for each of the major offensive positions, as well as one breakout candidate. You can find their picks below, and then analysis and insight on a selection of players they felt most passionate about in each category.
Create or join an ESPN Fantasy football league todayQuarterback sleepers
Stephania Bell: Cam Newton, New England PatriotsMatthew Berry: Gardner Minshew II, Jacksonville JaguarsMatt Bowen: Matthew Stafford, Detroit LionsTom Carpenter: Joe Burrow, Cincinnati BengalsMike Clay: Tom Brady, Tampa Bay BuccaneersTristan H. Cockcroft: Drew Lock, Denver BroncosDaniel Dopp: Joe Burrow, Cincinnati BengalsEric Karabell: Gardner Minshew II, Jacksonville JaguarsKeith Lipscomb: Daniel Jones, New York GiantsJim McCormick: Gardner Minshew II, Jacksonville JaguarsField Yates: Baker Mayfield, Cleveland BrownsQuarterback busts
Stephania Bell: Josh Allen, Buffalo BillsMatthew Berry: Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay PackersMatt Bowen: Josh Allen, Buffalo BillsTom Carpenter: Josh Allen, Buffalo BillsMike Clay: Josh Allen, Buffalo BillsTristan H. Cockcroft: Josh Allen, Buffalo BillsDaniel Dopp: Tom Brady, Tampa Bay BuccaneersEric Karabell: Josh Allen, Buffalo BillsKeith Lipscomb: Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay PackersJim McCormick: Daniel Jones, New York GiantsField Yates: Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay PackersRunning back sleepers
Stephania Bell: Antonio Gibson, WashingtonMatthew Berry: Antonio Gibson, WashingtonMatt Bowen: J.K. Dobbins, Baltimore RavensTom Carpenter: Cam Akers, Los Angeles RamsMike Clay: Darrell Henderson Jr., Los Angeles RamsTristan H. Cockcroft: Damien Harris, New England PatriotsDaniel Dopp: Kareem Hunt, Cleveland BrownsEric Karabell: Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis ColtsKeith Lipscomb: Cam Akers, Los Angeles RamsJim McCormick: Matt Breida, Miami DolphinsField Yates: James Conner, Pittsburgh SteelersRunning back busts
Stephania Bell: Le’Veon Bell, New York JetsMatthew Berry: Le’Veon Bell, New York JetsMatt Bowen: Todd Gurley II, Atlanta FalconsTom Carpenter: Nick Chubb, Cleveland BrownsMike Clay: J.K. Dobbins, Baltimore RavensTristan H. Cockcroft: Todd Gurley II, Atlanta FalconsDaniel Dopp: Todd Gurley II, Atlanta FalconsEric Karabell: David Johnson, Houston TexansKeith Lipscomb: Todd Gurley II, Atlanta FalconsJim McCormick: Todd Gurley II, Atlanta FalconsField Yates: Le’Veon Bell, New York JetsWide receiver sleepers
Stephania Bell: Diontae Johnson, Pittsburgh SteelersMatthew Berry: Anthony Miller, Chicago BearsMatt Bowen: Diontae Johnson, Pittsburgh SteelersTom Carpenter: DK Metcalf, Seattle SeahawksMike Clay: Preston Williams, Miami DolphinsTristan H. Cockcroft: CeeDee Lamb, Dallas CowboysDaniel Dopp: DK Metcalf, Seattle SeahawksEric Karabell: Hunter Renfrow, Las Vegas RaidersKeith Lipscomb: Michael Gallup, Dallas CowboysJim McCormick: Mecole Hardman, Kansas City ChiefsField Yates: Julian Edelman, New England PatriotsWide receiver busts
Stephania Bell: Keenan Allen, Las Angeles ChargersMatthew Berry: Courtland Sutton, Denver BroncosMatt Bowen: Stefon Diggs, Buffalo BillsTom Carpenter: Keenan Allen, Los Angeles ChargersMike Clay: Stefon Diggs, Buffalo BillsTristan H. Cockcroft: Stefon Diggs, Buffalo BillsDaniel Dopp: A.J. Green, Cincinnati BengalsEric Karabell: A.J. Green, Cincinnati BengalsKeith Lipscomb: Amari Cooper, Dallas CowboysJim McCormick: Julian Edelman, New England PatriotsField Yates: Tyler Lockett, Seattle SeahawksTight end sleepers
Stephania Bell: Blake Jarwin, Dallas CowboysMatthew Berry: Mike Gesicki, Miami DolphinsMatt Bowen: Jonnu Smith, Tennessee TitansTom Carpenter: O.J. Howard, Tampa Bay BuccaneersMike Clay: Noah Fant, Denver BroncosTristan H. Cockcroft: Hayden Hurst, Atlanta FalconsDaniel Dopp: Mike Gesicki, Miami DolphinsEric Karabell: Adam Trautman, New Orleans SaintsKeith Lipscomb: Hayden Hurst, Atlanta FalconsJim McCormick: T.J. Hockenson, Detroit LionsField Yates: Chris Herndon, New York JetsTight end busts
Stephania Bell: Hunter Henry, Los Angeles ChargersMatthew Berry: Jared Cook, New Orleans SaintsMatt Bowen: Rob Gronkowski, Tampa Bay BuccaneersTom Carpenter: Rob Gronkowski, Tampa Bay BuccaneersMike Clay: Austin Hooper, Cleveland BrownsTristan H. Cockcroft: Rob Gronkowski, Tampa Bay BuccaneersDaniel Dopp: Hunter Henry, Los Angeles ChargersEric Karabell: Rob Gronkowski, Tampa Bay BuccaneersKeith Lipscomb: Rob Gronkowski, Tampa Bay BuccaneersJim McCormick: Jared Cook, New Orleans SaintsField Yates: Jared Cook, New Orleans Saints2020 breakout player
Stephania Bell: Drew Lock, Denver BroncosMatthew Berry: Daniel Jones, New York GiantsMatt Bowen: Noah Fant, Denver BroncosTom Carpenter: Calvin Ridley, Atlanta FalconsMike Clay: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Kansas City ChiefsTristan H. Cockcroft: Devin Singletary, Buffalo BillsDaniel Dopp: Baker Mayfield, Cleveland BrownsEric Karabell: Joe Burrow, Cincinnati BengalsKeith Lipscomb: Diontae Johnson, Pittsburgh SteelersJim McCormick: Mecole Hardman, Kansas City ChiefsField Yates: Calvin Ridley, Atlanta FalconsSleepers
These are players our panel believes will exceed their 2020 average draft position and provide value for those who take a chance on them.
Gardner Minshew II, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars: Minshew is more than just a fine moustache. A surprising QB2 when active as a rookie, Minshew not only has plenty of tools to succeed and overcome pre-draft concerns as a passer, he emerged as an underrated thrower of the deep pass, and only four quarterbacks rushed for more yards last season. The Jaguars seemed a bit indifferent to building a contending team for 2020, and the quarterback competition is over with Nick Foles gone, so expect Minshew to throw and run to his heart’s content -- and pile on enough fantasy points to matter. -- Eric Karabell
Matthew Stafford, QB, Detroit Lions: Stafford played in only eight games last season, missing action for the first time since the 2010 season. However, through Week 9, Stafford ranked second in touchdown passes with 19 and fourth in passing yards at 2,499. Plus, he averaged 10.7 air yards per attempt last season, a 40.7% boost from his career average. Remember, Stafford has all the high-end traits of a volume thrower -- arm talent, movement skills, second-reaction ability. And playing in a Detroit with a leaky defense, Stafford could once again be forced to play ’hero ball.’ Drop back and take your shots. If you draft quarterbacks late -- which I do -- then Stafford should be one of your top targets. He has QB1 upside at a current ADP of QB13. -- Matt Bowen
Hunter Renfrow, WR, Las Vegas Raiders: It took awhile for the Raiders to rely on him, but Renfrow started breaking out midway through his rookie campaign, and closed strongly with a pair of 100-yard receiving games, each featuring a touchdown catch. Those playing in PPR formats need to be aware of an emerging slot option that gets the job done with quickness and route-running over blinding speed. A 75-catch, 1,000-yard season is hardly out of the question, and hardly matches up with his draft-day value. -- Eric Karabell
Drew Lock, QB, Denver Broncos: He wasn’t nearly as raw a prospect in a five-game, season-ending stint as you might think. His 64.1% completion and 19.1% off-target passing rates, as well as his 2.3 TD-to-interception ratio, were all within range of the league’s averages. The Broncos then loaded up at wide receiver in the draft, adding Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler to a group that already included Courtland Sutton and Noah Fant. Lock now has one of the most intriguing up-and-coming groups of receivers in the league with which to work, so he at least should be a viable matchups play in 2020. -- Tristan H. Cockcroft
Antonio Gibson, RB, Washington: Before you call me a homer, hear me out. Washington lacks any reliable playmakers outside of Terry McLaurin, and Gibson is a versatile offensive weapon (last season he was the only FBS player to have more than 700 receiving yards and more than300 rushing yards). Yes, it was a limited sample, but Gibson averaged more than 14 yards per offensive touch. Coach Ron Rivera recently said Gibson has ’a skill set like Christian McCaffrey.’ Not saying he will be CMC or even used as much as him, but OC Scott Turner knows he will have to be creative on offense, and Gibson’s versatility will allow him to create mismatches all over the field. -- Matthew Berry
Matt Breida, RB, Miami Dolphins: The pitch for Breida isn’t that he’ll suddenly become a 20-touch feature back in Miami, as Jordan Howard seems likely to consume a sizable early-down role. Rather, I trust that Breida will command a valuable change-of-pace role with the Fins. He is a superior speedster who had the fifth-fastest average speed among NFL tailbacks while crossing the line of scrimmage with the ball last season, and who finished fifth among backs with 5.07 YPC. In Chan Gailey’s last three seasons at the helm of an NFL offense, his backfields earned at least a 21% share of the team’s total targets. With Howard a nonfactor as a receiver and Breida’s big-play ability ideal for such usage, I think a high-end flex performance in PPR formats is entirely within the range of outcomes. -- Jim McCormick
Julian Edelman, WR, New England Patriots: There’s a tendency to undercut the merits of slot receivers at times; heck, just look at how they are paid relative to perimeter receivers! But let’s not overthink this: Edelman is an ankle-breaking, yards-after-catch machine. We don’t know a ton of what life without Tom Brady looks like for Edelman, but I’m betting on him to remain a star. When Jimmy Garoppolo stepped into a starting role for two full games to start 2016, Edelman posted seven catches in each game. Cam Newton-to-Julian Edelman has lethal potency. -- Field Yates
Jonnu Smith, TE, Tennessee Titans: With Delanie Walker now out of the mix in Tennessee, Smith is one of my favorite late-round targets. In the 10 games with quarterback Ryan Tannehill as the starter in Tennessee, Smith caught 29 of 35 targets for 342 yards, including all three of his touchdown grabs. And while Tennessee’s run-heavy game script does lower the floor a bit for Smith, the traits jump here. Smith has matchup ability and movement skills to produce in the open field. Look for the Titans to scheme opportunities for Smith here off play-action or when flexed from the formation. Don’t be surprised if Smith posts lower-tier TE1 numbers this season. -- Matt Bowen
Preston Williams, WR, Miami Dolphins: Despite going undrafted, Williams averaged a healthy 7.4 targets (21% share) during a 2019 rookie season that was shortened by a Week 9 ACL tear. DeVante Parker ended up with the breakout campaign, but Parker actually trailed Williams in targets (50 to 59) and air yards (692 to 843) prior to the injury. Williams’ recovery will need to be monitored, but the 23-year-old appears to be a steal and is positioned as an every-down player in Gailey’s WR-friendly scheme. -- Mike Clay
James Conner, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers: The case for Conner is pretty simple: I believe he’s going to be the guy in the Steelers’ backfield, despite a host of talented other backs, including Benny Snell, Jaylen Samuels and Anthony McFarland Jr. This isn’t about coach-speak or offseason soundbites -- I just believe enough in the talent of Conner to think he’ll prove to be the workhorse that we saw in 2018. And when Conner gets chances, he dominates. To wit: Conner has a total of 10 games in his career with at least 18 touches, scoring an incredible 28.3 fantasy points per game in those 10 contests. -- Field Yates
T.J. Hockenson, TE, Detroit Lions: Given the blend of complex blocking and receiving duties at the position, there isn’t a strong history of rookie NFL tight ends performing at a high statistical level. Hockenson looked to buck this trend in producing 131 yards in his professional debut in Week 1 last fall, but he gained just 367 yards over 12 games before hitting injured reserve. An historically good prospect coming into the league last year with the potential to demand a strong target share from a capable veteran quarterback in 2020, Hockenson’s potential to breakout as a sophomore is quite viable. -- Jim McCormick
Hayden Hurst, TE, Atlanta Falcons: After two seasons largely stuck behind Mark Andrews and Nick Boyle on the Ravens’ depth chart, Hurst was thrust into a golden opportunity in Atlanta this offseason. There, he’ll absorb many of the targets that went in Austin Hooper’s direction. Hooper had an 18.6% target share in his 13 healthy games in 2019 and was sixth best among tight ends in the category for the season when including his missed time. Hurst brings more speed to the table with similar size, so a top-eight positional season is possible. -- Tristan H. CockcroftBusts
Who is destined to fall short of draft-day expectations? Our panel suggests you stay away from these players, who are sure to disappoint.
Rob Gronkowski, TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: I get the connection here with quarterback Tom Brady, along with the expectation that the Bucs will use more two-tight-end personnel. Throw seams and crossers. That fits the profile for Gronk, who caught 71.1% of his targets from Brady on passes thrown less than 15 yards with the Patriots from 2014 to 2018. However, Gronk’s current ADP of 67.0 -- TE6 -- is simply too rich for me. He hasn’t played a full season since 2011, and expecting Gronk to return as a consistent, high-end fantasy option is a bit of stretch here. Gronk should be targeted as a lower-tier TE1 in 2019. -- Matt Bowen
Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills: Don’t mistake his rushing success for an all-around breakthrough. Allen scored 35% (101.0 of 288.6) of his fantasy points rushing, but his passing left plenty to be desired, as he finished last among qualified quarterbacks with 58.8% completion and 23.0% off-target passing rates. Yes, Stefon Diggs’ addition bolsters Allen’s receiving corps, but a so-so passer is a so-so passer. Prepare for regression: Of the previous 10 quarterbacks to score at least nine rushing touchdowns in a season, the group saw a 66% decline in the category for an average loss of 7.1 scores. -- Tristan H. Cockcroft
J.K. Dobbins, RB, Baltimore Ravens: I see three pretty significant roadblocks to fantasy success for Dobbins during his rookie season: history, scheme and competition. History: Over the past decade, only six of 23 backs drafted in the second round finished better than RB28 as a rookie. Scheme: Greg Roman’s RB units usually rank high in rushes but have an average finish of 28.2 in targets and 17.3 in fantasy PPG during his six seasons as a playcaller. Competition: Dobbins will have a hard time finding enough snaps with starter Mark Ingram and Gus Edwards (NFL YPC leader over the past two seasons) in the fold. That’s too many roadblocks for a player going in the sixth round. -- Mike Clay
Courtland Sutton, WR, Denver Broncos: Sutton is a talented player who has managed to produce despite shaky QB play in each of the past two seasons, but consider this: In 2019, Sutton led all players in air-yard target share and was sixth among WRs in end zone targets per game. Yet even with all that opportunity, he was WR27 on a PPG basis and had just three games all season with more than five catches. Sure, the hope is a full season of Drew Lock will help that efficiency, but the Broncos spent their first two draft picks on Jeudy and Hamler, signed a capable pass-catching back in Melvin Gordon, and will presumably give sophomore TE Fant a larger role. It’s going to be hard to turn a profit on Sutton at his current ESPN ADP of WR15. -- Matthew Berry
Tom Brady, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: I am in awe of Brady. I want that to be clear. He’s the greatest QB of my generation. That’s why this is so hard for me. Brady’s turning 43 this August, and while he’s still playing at a high level, he’s still human. So consider me concerned about the oldest QB in the NFL, who’s learning a new offense, with new teammates, during a pandemic, while his body works overtime to be a full-time professional athlete. This is about minimizing risk, and I’d rather be a year too early than be a year too late. Brady is my QB12. -- Daniel Dopp
Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers: While Rodgers is still a great real-life QB, for fantasy purposes, he no longer has the same upside or consistency as in years past. Last season, Rodgers produced fewer than 15 fantasy points in 10 of his 16 starts, and from Week 9 on, he averaged just 1.3 passing TDs and 209.8 passing yards per game. And this run-heavy approach worked, as Green Bay went to the NFC Championship Game last year. Given the team used a second-round pick on 250-pound RB AJ Dillon and did little in the way of adding additional pass-catching, help it seems likely this offense is even more run-heavy this season. I have Rodgers comfortably outside my top-12 QBs for 2020. -- Matthew Berry
Stefon Diggs, WR, Buffalo Bills: Diggs forced his way out of a low-volume, highly efficient Minnesota offense but is arguably in worse conditions in a Buffalo pass offense that has been low-volume, low-scoring and inefficient during the Josh Allen era. Diggs finished 2019 as the No. 24 scoring fantasy receiver, despite finishing second among receivers in YPT and with Adam Thielen missing half the season. Durability is also a concern, as Diggs has never played a full 16-game season. Consider Diggs as midrange WR3, at best. -- Mike ClayBreakouts
Who will join the ranks of the elite and help you win your league this season? Here are our experts’ picks for 2020’s breakout stars and how they imagine it will take place.
Drew Lock, QB, Denver Broncos: We caught only a glimpse of Lock in 2019
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Everyone has optimism in the preseason, and with that in mind, we choose one fantasy football sleeper from all 32 NFL teams. See which potential breakout from your favorite team is worth bumping. Host Anthony Aniano of RotoBaller discusses 2021 fantasy baseball third base rankings and 3B draft sleepers who can be sneaky later-round picks. He breaks down and compares the ADPs of five.
As we enter into the heart of fantasy football draft season, we circled back with our ESPN Fantasy Football experts to bring you their latest sleepers, busts and breakout players for the 2020 campaign, as defined here:
*
Sleeper: A player who will far surpass his average draft position (ADP) in standard ESPN leagues for the 2020 season.
*
Bust: A player who is expected to be a solid starter in standard ESPN leagues but will fail to live up to those expectations this season.
*
Breakout: A player who will leap into or close to the upper echelon of players at his position for the first time because of a dramatic increase in production compared with his previous seasons (or a rookie who will burst onto the scene).
Our panel is composed of the following ESPN Fantasy writers and editors: Stephania Bell, Matthew Berry, Matt Bowen, Tom Carpenter, Mike Clay, Tristan H. Cockcroft, Daniel Dopp, Eric Karabell, Keith Lipscomb, Jim McCormick and Field Yates.
Each analyst named a sleeper and a bust for each of the major offensive positions, as well as one breakout candidate. You can find their picks below, and then analysis and insight on a selection of players they felt most passionate about in each category.
Create or join an ESPN Fantasy football league todayQuarterback sleepers
Stephania Bell: Cam Newton, New England PatriotsMatthew Berry: Gardner Minshew II, Jacksonville JaguarsMatt Bowen: Matthew Stafford, Detroit LionsTom Carpenter: Joe Burrow, Cincinnati BengalsMike Clay: Tom Brady, Tampa Bay BuccaneersTristan H. Cockcroft: Drew Lock, Denver BroncosDaniel Dopp: Joe Burrow, Cincinnati BengalsEric Karabell: Gardner Minshew II, Jacksonville JaguarsKeith Lipscomb: Daniel Jones, New York GiantsJim McCormick: Gardner Minshew II, Jacksonville JaguarsField Yates: Baker Mayfield, Cleveland BrownsQuarterback busts
Stephania Bell: Josh Allen, Buffalo BillsMatthew Berry: Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay PackersMatt Bowen: Josh Allen, Buffalo BillsTom Carpenter: Josh Allen, Buffalo BillsMike Clay: Josh Allen, Buffalo BillsTristan H. Cockcroft: Josh Allen, Buffalo BillsDaniel Dopp: Tom Brady, Tampa Bay BuccaneersEric Karabell: Josh Allen, Buffalo BillsKeith Lipscomb: Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay PackersJim McCormick: Daniel Jones, New York GiantsField Yates: Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay PackersRunning back sleepers
Stephania Bell: Antonio Gibson, WashingtonMatthew Berry: Antonio Gibson, WashingtonMatt Bowen: J.K. Dobbins, Baltimore RavensTom Carpenter: Cam Akers, Los Angeles RamsMike Clay: Darrell Henderson Jr., Los Angeles RamsTristan H. Cockcroft: Damien Harris, New England PatriotsDaniel Dopp: Kareem Hunt, Cleveland BrownsEric Karabell: Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis ColtsKeith Lipscomb: Cam Akers, Los Angeles RamsJim McCormick: Matt Breida, Miami DolphinsField Yates: James Conner, Pittsburgh SteelersRunning back busts
Stephania Bell: Le’Veon Bell, New York JetsMatthew Berry: Le’Veon Bell, New York JetsMatt Bowen: Todd Gurley II, Atlanta FalconsTom Carpenter: Nick Chubb, Cleveland BrownsMike Clay: J.K. Dobbins, Baltimore RavensTristan H. Cockcroft: Todd Gurley II, Atlanta FalconsDaniel Dopp: Todd Gurley II, Atlanta FalconsEric Karabell: David Johnson, Houston TexansKeith Lipscomb: Todd Gurley II, Atlanta FalconsJim McCormick: Todd Gurley II, Atlanta FalconsField Yates: Le’Veon Bell, New York JetsWide receiver sleepers
Stephania Bell: Diontae Johnson, Pittsburgh SteelersMatthew Berry: Anthony Miller, Chicago BearsMatt Bowen: Diontae Johnson, Pittsburgh SteelersTom Carpenter: DK Metcalf, Seattle SeahawksMike Clay: Preston Williams, Miami DolphinsTristan H. Cockcroft: CeeDee Lamb, Dallas CowboysDaniel Dopp: DK Metcalf, Seattle SeahawksEric Karabell: Hunter Renfrow, Las Vegas RaidersKeith Lipscomb: Michael Gallup, Dallas CowboysJim McCormick: Mecole Hardman, Kansas City ChiefsField Yates: Julian Edelman, New England PatriotsWide receiver busts
Stephania Bell: Keenan Allen, Las Angeles ChargersMatthew Berry: Courtland Sutton, Denver BroncosMatt Bowen: Stefon Diggs, Buffalo BillsTom Carpenter: Keenan Allen, Los Angeles ChargersMike Clay: Stefon Diggs, Buffalo BillsTristan H. Cockcroft: Stefon Diggs, Buffalo BillsDaniel Dopp: A.J. Green, Cincinnati BengalsEric Karabell: A.J. Green, Cincinnati BengalsKeith Lipscomb: Amari Cooper, Dallas CowboysJim McCormick: Julian Edelman, New England PatriotsField Yates: Tyler Lockett, Seattle SeahawksTight end sleepers
Stephania Bell: Blake Jarwin, Dallas CowboysMatthew Berry: Mike Gesicki, Miami DolphinsMatt Bowen: Jonnu Smith, Tennessee TitansTom Carpenter: O.J. Howard, Tampa Bay BuccaneersMike Clay: Noah Fant, Denver BroncosTristan H. Cockcroft: Hayden Hurst, Atlanta FalconsDaniel Dopp: Mike Gesicki, Miami DolphinsEric Karabell: Adam Trautman, New Orleans SaintsKeith Lipscomb: Hayden Hurst, Atlanta FalconsJim McCormick: T.J. Hockenson, Detroit LionsField Yates: Chris Herndon, New York JetsTight end busts
Stephania Bell: Hunter Henry, Los Angeles ChargersMatthew Berry: Jared Cook, New Orleans SaintsMatt Bowen: Rob Gronkowski, Tampa Bay BuccaneersTom Carpenter: Rob Gronkowski, Tampa Bay BuccaneersMike Clay: Austin Hooper, Cleveland BrownsTristan H. Cockcroft: Rob Gronkowski, Tampa Bay BuccaneersDaniel Dopp: Hunter Henry, Los Angeles ChargersEric Karabell: Rob Gronkowski, Tampa Bay BuccaneersKeith Lipscomb: Rob Gronkowski, Tampa Bay BuccaneersJim McCormick: Jared Cook, New Orleans SaintsField Yates: Jared Cook, New Orleans Saints2020 breakout player
Stephania Bell: Drew Lock, Denver BroncosMatthew Berry: Daniel Jones, New York GiantsMatt Bowen: Noah Fant, Denver BroncosTom Carpenter: Calvin Ridley, Atlanta FalconsMike Clay: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Kansas City ChiefsTristan H. Cockcroft: Devin Singletary, Buffalo BillsDaniel Dopp: Baker Mayfield, Cleveland BrownsEric Karabell: Joe Burrow, Cincinnati BengalsKeith Lipscomb: Diontae Johnson, Pittsburgh SteelersJim McCormick: Mecole Hardman, Kansas City ChiefsField Yates: Calvin Ridley, Atlanta FalconsSleepers
These are players our panel believes will exceed their 2020 average draft position and provide value for those who take a chance on them.
Gardner Minshew II, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars: Minshew is more than just a fine moustache. A surprising QB2 when active as a rookie, Minshew not only has plenty of tools to succeed and overcome pre-draft concerns as a passer, he emerged as an underrated thrower of the deep pass, and only four quarterbacks rushed for more yards last season. The Jaguars seemed a bit indifferent to building a contending team for 2020, and the quarterback competition is over with Nick Foles gone, so expect Minshew to throw and run to his heart’s content -- and pile on enough fantasy points to matter. -- Eric Karabell
Matthew Stafford, QB, Detroit Lions: Stafford played in only eight games last season, missing action for the first time since the 2010 season. However, through Week 9, Stafford ranked second in touchdown passes with 19 and fourth in passing yards at 2,499. Plus, he averaged 10.7 air yards per attempt last season, a 40.7% boost from his career average. Remember, Stafford has all the high-end traits of a volume thrower -- arm talent, movement skills, second-reaction ability. And playing in a Detroit with a leaky defense, Stafford could once again be forced to play ’hero ball.’ Drop back and take your shots. If you draft quarterbacks late -- which I do -- then Stafford should be one of your top targets. He has QB1 upside at a current ADP of QB13. -- Matt Bowen
Hunter Renfrow, WR, Las Vegas Raiders: It took awhile for the Raiders to rely on him, but Renfrow started breaking out midway through his rookie campaign, and closed strongly with a pair of 100-yard receiving games, each featuring a touchdown catch. Those playing in PPR formats need to be aware of an emerging slot option that gets the job done with quickness and route-running over blinding speed. A 75-catch, 1,000-yard season is hardly out of the question, and hardly matches up with his draft-day value. -- Eric Karabell
Drew Lock, QB, Denver Broncos: He wasn’t nearly as raw a prospect in a five-game, season-ending stint as you might think. His 64.1% completion and 19.1% off-target passing rates, as well as his 2.3 TD-to-interception ratio, were all within range of the league’s averages. The Broncos then loaded up at wide receiver in the draft, adding Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler to a group that already included Courtland Sutton and Noah Fant. Lock now has one of the most intriguing up-and-coming groups of receivers in the league with which to work, so he at least should be a viable matchups play in 2020. -- Tristan H. Cockcroft
Antonio Gibson, RB, Washington: Before you call me a homer, hear me out. Washington lacks any reliable playmakers outside of Terry McLaurin, and Gibson is a versatile offensive weapon (last season he was the only FBS player to have more than 700 receiving yards and more than300 rushing yards). Yes, it was a limited sample, but Gibson averaged more than 14 yards per offensive touch. Coach Ron Rivera recently said Gibson has ’a skill set like Christian McCaffrey.’ Not saying he will be CMC or even used as much as him, but OC Scott Turner knows he will have to be creative on offense, and Gibson’s versatility will allow him to create mismatches all over the field. -- Matthew Berry
Matt Breida, RB, Miami Dolphins: The pitch for Breida isn’t that he’ll suddenly become a 20-touch feature back in Miami, as Jordan Howard seems likely to consume a sizable early-down role. Rather, I trust that Breida will command a valuable change-of-pace role with the Fins. He is a superior speedster who had the fifth-fastest average speed among NFL tailbacks while crossing the line of scrimmage with the ball last season, and who finished fifth among backs with 5.07 YPC. In Chan Gailey’s last three seasons at the helm of an NFL offense, his backfields earned at least a 21% share of the team’s total targets. With Howard a nonfactor as a receiver and Breida’s big-play ability ideal for such usage, I think a high-end flex performance in PPR formats is entirely within the range of outcomes. -- Jim McCormick
Julian Edelman, WR, New England Patriots: There’s a tendency to undercut the merits of slot receivers at times; heck, just look at how they are paid relative to perimeter receivers! But let’s not overthink this: Edelman is an ankle-breaking, yards-after-catch machine. We don’t know a ton of what life without Tom Brady looks like for Edelman, but I’m betting on him to remain a star. When Jimmy Garoppolo stepped into a starting role for two full games to start 2016, Edelman posted seven catches in each game. Cam Newton-to-Julian Edelman has lethal potency. -- Field Yates
Jonnu Smith, TE, Tennessee Titans: With Delanie Walker now out of the mix in Tennessee, Smith is one of my favorite late-round targets. In the 10 games with quarterback Ryan Tannehill as the starter in Tennessee, Smith caught 29 of 35 targets for 342 yards, including all three of his touchdown grabs. And while Tennessee’s run-heavy game script does lower the floor a bit for Smith, the traits jump here. Smith has matchup ability and movement skills to produce in the open field. Look for the Titans to scheme opportunities for Smith here off play-action or when flexed from the formation. Don’t be surprised if Smith posts lower-tier TE1 numbers this season. -- Matt Bowen
Preston Williams, WR, Miami Dolphins: Despite going undrafted, Williams averaged a healthy 7.4 targets (21% share) during a 2019 rookie season that was shortened by a Week 9 ACL tear. DeVante Parker ended up with the breakout campaign, but Parker actually trailed Williams in targets (50 to 59) and air yards (692 to 843) prior to the injury. Williams’ recovery will need to be monitored, but the 23-year-old appears to be a steal and is positioned as an every-down player in Gailey’s WR-friendly scheme. -- Mike Clay
James Conner, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers: The case for Conner is pretty simple: I believe he’s going to be the guy in the Steelers’ backfield, despite a host of talented other backs, including Benny Snell, Jaylen Samuels and Anthony McFarland Jr. This isn’t about coach-speak or offseason soundbites -- I just believe enough in the talent of Conner to think he’ll prove to be the workhorse that we saw in 2018. And when Conner gets chances, he dominates. To wit: Conner has a total of 10 games in his career with at least 18 touches, scoring an incredible 28.3 fantasy points per game in those 10 contests. -- Field Yates
T.J. Hockenson, TE, Detroit Lions: Given the blend of complex blocking and receiving duties at the position, there isn’t a strong history of rookie NFL tight ends performing at a high statistical level. Hockenson looked to buck this trend in producing 131 yards in his professional debut in Week 1 last fall, but he gained just 367 yards over 12 games before hitting injured reserve. An historically good prospect coming into the league last year with the potential to demand a strong target share from a capable veteran quarterback in 2020, Hockenson’s potential to breakout as a sophomore is quite viable. -- Jim McCormick
Hayden Hurst, TE, Atlanta Falcons: After two seasons largely stuck behind Mark Andrews and Nick Boyle on the Ravens’ depth chart, Hurst was thrust into a golden opportunity in Atlanta this offseason. There, he’ll absorb many of the targets that went in Austin Hooper’s direction. Hooper had an 18.6% target share in his 13 healthy games in 2019 and was sixth best among tight ends in the category for the season when including his missed time. Hurst brings more speed to the table with similar size, so a top-eight positional season is possible. -- Tristan H. CockcroftBusts
Who is destined to fall short of draft-day expectations? Our panel suggests you stay away from these players, who are sure to disappoint.
Rob Gronkowski, TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: I get the connection here with quarterback Tom Brady, along with the expectation that the Bucs will use more two-tight-end personnel. Throw seams and crossers. That fits the profile for Gronk, who caught 71.1% of his targets from Brady on passes thrown less than 15 yards with the Patriots from 2014 to 2018. However, Gronk’s current ADP of 67.0 -- TE6 -- is simply too rich for me. He hasn’t played a full season since 2011, and expecting Gronk to return as a consistent, high-end fantasy option is a bit of stretch here. Gronk should be targeted as a lower-tier TE1 in 2019. -- Matt Bowen
Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills: Don’t mistake his rushing success for an all-around breakthrough. Allen scored 35% (101.0 of 288.6) of his fantasy points rushing, but his passing left plenty to be desired, as he finished last among qualified quarterbacks with 58.8% completion and 23.0% off-target passing rates. Yes, Stefon Diggs’ addition bolsters Allen’s receiving corps, but a so-so passer is a so-so passer. Prepare for regression: Of the previous 10 quarterbacks to score at least nine rushing touchdowns in a season, the group saw a 66% decline in the category for an average loss of 7.1 scores. -- Tristan H. Cockcroft
J.K. Dobbins, RB, Baltimore Ravens: I see three pretty significant roadblocks to fantasy success for Dobbins during his rookie season: history, scheme and competition. History: Over the past decade, only six of 23 backs drafted in the second round finished better than RB28 as a rookie. Scheme: Greg Roman’s RB units usually rank high in rushes but have an average finish of 28.2 in targets and 17.3 in fantasy PPG during his six seasons as a playcaller. Competition: Dobbins will have a hard time finding enough snaps with starter Mark Ingram and Gus Edwards (NFL YPC leader over the past two seasons) in the fold. That’s too many roadblocks for a player going in the sixth round. -- Mike Clay
Courtland Sutton, WR, Denver Broncos: Sutton is a talented player who has managed to produce despite shaky QB play in each of the past two seasons, but consider this: In 2019, Sutton led all players in air-yard target share and was sixth among WRs in end zone targets per game. Yet even with all that opportunity, he was WR27 on a PPG basis and had just three games all season with more than five catches. Sure, the hope is a full season of Drew Lock will help that efficiency, but the Broncos spent their first two draft picks on Jeudy and Hamler, signed a capable pass-catching back in Melvin Gordon, and will presumably give sophomore TE Fant a larger role. It’s going to be hard to turn a profit on Sutton at his current ESPN ADP of WR15. -- Matthew Berry
Tom Brady, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: I am in awe of Brady. I want that to be clear. He’s the greatest QB of my generation. That’s why this is so hard for me. Brady’s turning 43 this August, and while he’s still playing at a high level, he’s still human. So consider me concerned about the oldest QB in the NFL, who’s learning a new offense, with new teammates, during a pandemic, while his body works overtime to be a full-time professional athlete. This is about minimizing risk, and I’d rather be a year too early than be a year too late. Brady is my QB12. -- Daniel Dopp
Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers: While Rodgers is still a great real-life QB, for fantasy purposes, he no longer has the same upside or consistency as in years past. Last season, Rodgers produced fewer than 15 fantasy points in 10 of his 16 starts, and from Week 9 on, he averaged just 1.3 passing TDs and 209.8 passing yards per game. And this run-heavy approach worked, as Green Bay went to the NFC Championship Game last year. Given the team used a second-round pick on 250-pound RB AJ Dillon and did little in the way of adding additional pass-catching, help it seems likely this offense is even more run-heavy this season. I have Rodgers comfortably outside my top-12 QBs for 2020. -- Matthew Berry
Stefon Diggs, WR, Buffalo Bills: Diggs forced his way out of a low-volume, highly efficient Minnesota offense but is arguably in worse conditions in a Buffalo pass offense that has been low-volume, low-scoring and inefficient during the Josh Allen era. Diggs finished 2019 as the No. 24 scoring fantasy receiver, despite finishing second among receivers in YPT and with Adam Thielen missing half the season. Durability is also a concern, as Diggs has never played a full 16-game season. Consider Diggs as midrange WR3, at best. -- Mike ClayBreakouts
Who will join the ranks of the elite and help you win your league this season? Here are our experts’ picks for 2020’s breakout stars and how they imagine it will take place.
Drew Lock, QB, Denver Broncos: We caught only a glimpse of Lock in 2019
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